This study investigates land cover change and land ownership turnover in an area that is a priority conservation zone, the Sierra del Lacandon National Park (SLNP), Peten, Guatemala. Migration to Peten since the 1950s has eliminated 60% of Peten's forests. Migration to the SLNP peaked in the 1990s and population growth continues.

This study analyzes panel-data consisting of household interviews conducted with farmers living in the SLNP or its buffer zone in 1998 and 2009. I examined household survey data previously collected during interviews conducted in 1998 with 247 subsistence farmers in eight communities. In 2009 I reinterviewed the same households when present. Additionally, I interviewed the new owners of land that had belonged to the 1998 interviewees, and a cross-sectional sample of 213 randomly selected households. Surveys were primarily quantitative, with some open-ended qualitative questions. I ran continuous regressions examining changes in land cover for households who remained in the area between the two dates. I also ran logistic regressions examining which 1998 landholding households had sold their land by 2009.

The overall trend is towards deintensification of agriculture. On average, households crop larger areas of higher value crops and less maize, but these changes have not kept pace with the expansion of pasture. The area is simultaneously experiencing farm parcel consolidation and splintering. Half of the landowning households in 1998 sold their land by 2009, some to large landholders. The most commonly cited reason for a household to sell its land is for payments related to a medical emergency or debt. Early adopters of cattle and higher value crops were less likely to have sold their land by 2009.

As in much of the lowland tropics of Latin America, pasture dominates the landscape. These findings illustrate that in areas of weak grain and produce markets, many households with the means to produce beyond basic subsistence will turn to cattle. In conservation areas of Latin America, park administrators would be advised to invest in developing land use alternatives to cattle, such as non-timber forest products.